What is the potential of China-India economic and trade cooperation?
I think the cooperation between China and India on trade has a wide perspective and huge potential.
In the past 20 years, China and India have experienced rapid growth in economic development and bilateral trade. According to the China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC), trade between the two countries has increased from $ 2.9 billion in 2000 to $ 125.6 billion today, up 43.3% year-on-year. It is the first time that India-China trade crossed the $100-billion mark. In terms of outbound investment, India ranks 18th in the number of overseas enterprises established by China. Besides, the stock of Chinese investment in India exceeds $300 million. All of these numbers show that China-India cooperation has a solid foundation and great potential for future development.
Relatively, China leads in labor efficiency while India does well in capital efficiency. China is a manufacturing powerhouse from which India needs support. On the other hand, India is an IT hub. Therefore, strengthening economic and trade cooperation between the two countries will deepen cooperation in these fields and achieve a win-win in regional development
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plays a key role in bilateral relations, through which China and India could tap their potential. Since 2013, China’s outward FDI flows to countries participating in BRI have been on the rise. The total volume in BRI countries has been estimated at around $20 billion in 2020. Joining BRI will help India further increase the degree of openness, connect two major markets, and drive economic development.
However, under the incitement of anti-China forces in India, many people believe that China wants to curb India’s development, thus listing China as the biggest threat to India. Over time, there have been incidents of suppression of Chinese companies by the Indian authorities. In addition, India has been dealing with China about the trade deficit issue and taking measures to restrict imports from China. All these limitations make the huge potential far from being fully explored. India needs to get rid of the zero-sum game trap, jump out of the mindset that surplus is always better than deficit, and view bilateral trade from the perspective of its own consumers and economic development.
China and India are partners rather than rivals. They should achieve mutual success rather than internal conflict, take a long-term view of the bilateral relationship, view each other’s development with a win-win mindset, and participate in multilateral cooperation. I believe that with the relationship gradually back on track bilateral trade will make greater breakthroughs.
Can India compete with China in global trade?
India will never be able to compete with China in trade for a long time to come, perhaps next few decades. India just does not have the development plan to achieve it, neither it has the political system and will to achieve it.
It may get some boost from the politically motivated shift in supply chains but that will not be sufficient to boost India into a trade superpower like China. India is just too far away from China, totally different categories in terms of efficiency, productivity, innovation, stability, and reliability.
China’s current trade volume is 5 times that of India and still growing. China's total trade in 2020 is more than USD 4.3 trillion compare with India's USD 844 billion.
India should target to surpass the Africa continent instead of competing with China, an impossible dream, when China rebalance its economy which is currently in active progress, most China labour-intensive factories will be relocated to Africa, SEA and Latin America.
Could China and India become partners and friends instead of rivals or enemies?
India and China are not meant to be friends, but rather enemies.
However, the two countries may have common interests at times, which leads them to enter into partnerships and forget their detestation.
But the two countries are still suspicious of each other.
India is playing a double game anyway, being at the same time close to America via the Quad, a kind of Indo-Pacific NATO that brings together Japan, America, Australia, and India. The aim here is to better fight against China's expansionist ambitions and its voracious appetite in the region.
India is also a partner of China via the BRICS and allows itself to buy Russian oil at reduced prices despite the war in Ukraine and the fact that America is pressing the country to take a stand against Putin and his odious war.
India prioritizes its interests above all else, as do all countries in general, but it is astonishing that it is tolerated to play both sides at the same time.
The reality is that with China becoming less of a dream destination in Asia for Western companies, India will become an increasingly essential partner in the future.
Everyone needs India more than ever in the two camps that will oppose each other in the future.
Why can't India and China be good friends?
US and Cuba writing off their 5 decade old enmity
Israel And Palestines trying to reach to a settlement
And what India and China doing with each other….
Regrettably, even as the current policy-making environment stand significantly transformed looking at the India-China relationship in a much broader context, the public perception of China continues to be fed with the post-1962 mistrust of China. This mistrust was systematically worked by successive governments into the official and non-official discourse on China and almost became a matter of policy through the 1970s to early 1990s.
The Chinese economic growth and the cornering of certain markets by Chinese goods in India had contributed to this mistrust.
Add to this the relevant concerns about the increasing Chinese military modernisation; all these factors together have prevented any critical view of the burgeoning India-China relationship.
“HOPE" is the fuel on which this world runs. Isn't it?
Trade in goods between China and India is brisk,
Despite poor relations between China and India in recent years, bilateral trade in goods has broken records.
But investment and infrastructure cooperation between China and India has largely stalled,
India is not willing to cooperate with China,
It is very risky for China to invest in India and no one wants to invest in India.
It makes no sense to talk about the potential between China and India,
Potential is worthless if it cannot be translated into reality.
I personally do not see the future of China-India relations.
How are India-China relations?
I think a historic turning point has occurred in Apr 2018.
In a space of less than a month, China made gains on two major geopolitical fronts : on the Eastern Front, the Korean brinkmanship has dissolved to reconciliation, and on the Western Front, India had decided to finally tie up with China.
On the Eastern Front, China had been unable to advance further gains after fighting the United States to a standstill in the Korean War, due to limited economic and military power back then. If not for the Korean War, China would have unified Taiwan with the mainland in the 1950s.
On the Western Front, India and China has been traditionally good neighbors since ancient times , but the deliberate demarcation by the British along strategic borders before they withdrew in 1949 left behind a timebomb, which caused multiple flare ups along the Sino-Indian borders.
China has been develo and bidding her time to push back US influence for the longest time from both fronts, while India knew that the US has always wanted India to front geopolitical confrontation with China, which is not in India's long-term interest.
Both their times have come and they seize upon it.
Of course, China and India can cooperate and win-win. The elites of the two countries have more exchanges and cooperation to make the cake in Asia bigger.
Swam the world and owning over 50% of its trade and economy. Why do you think the west is in fear and amking up all these stories of doom against China and India?