Quora：印度要如何在經濟上超過中國

How can India surpass China economically?

印度要如何在經濟上超過中國？

以下是Quora網友的評論：

Sage

India has a large and growing population, a well-educated workforce, and a rapidly expanding middle class. In order to surpass China economically, India will need to continue to focus on building its infrastructure, promoting foreign investment, and encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship. Additionally, India will need to address issues such as corruption and bureaucratic red tape, which can make it difficult for businesses to operate in the country. It will also need to invest in education and training programs to ensure that its workforce has the skills needed to compete in a global economy. Additionally, India may also want to invest in renewable energy and other sustainable industries to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Ultimately, achieving economic growth will require a combination of government policies, private sector investment, and societal changes.

印度擁有龐大且不斷增長的人口，受過良好教育的勞動力，以及迅速壯大的中產階級。

要在經濟上超越中國，印度需要繼續集中精力建設基礎設施，促進外國投資，鼓勵創新和創業。

此外，印度還需要解決腐敗和官僚主義等問題，這些問題會降低企業的營商便利度。

印度還必須投資教育和培訓，幫助勞動力擁有在全球經濟中競爭所需的技能。

此外，印度可能還可以投資可再生能源和其他可持續產業，減少對化石燃料的依賴。

最終，實現經濟增長需要政府政策、對私營企業的投資和社會改革等組合拳。

Rajesh Tiwary

Is it true that India can never beat China in terms of economy?

Let's first talk about Japan.

印度在經濟上永遠無法超越中國，是真的嗎？

我們可以先從日本談起。

It's 1980s and Japan is growing like a mad boy. At 10–15% per annum. Japan is leading manufacturer of cars , electronics, machine hardwares and many other stuff.

One of the highest per capita GDP and income. Overqualified, highly skilled people everywhere you go. You got to be a millionaire to buy an okayish flat in Tokyo. Money is literally flowing in the streets(Okay I made this one up…)

20世紀80年代日本的發展勢頭非常迅猛，每年增長10-15%。日本是汽車、電子產品、機械硬件和其他眾多產品的領先制造國。

日本成了人均GDP和人均收入最高的國家之一。你所到之處，看到的都是資歷過高、技術高超的人。你得成為百萬富翁才能在東京買到一套不錯的公寓。路上到處都是錢流(哈，這是我自己編的…)

$ 4.9 trillion economy which was only behind of USA’s $7 trillion economy. Almost every “Expert” predicted that Japan will overtake USA’s economy by 2010 or so…

But we all know that never really happened. So what went wrong?

As it turned out, almost Everything….. The young Japanese people preferred staying single than marrying and having children.

日本當時4.9萬億美元的經濟規模僅次于美國的7萬億美元。幾乎每個“專家”都預測日本經濟將在2010年左右超過美國。

但我們都知道這個預測沒能實現。那么問題出在哪里？

最后事實證明，日本幾乎方方面面都出現了問題.....比起結婚生子，日本年輕人更喜歡單身。

About 30% Japanese people never marry. So the population started aging rapidly. The population even started declining. The problem with this is, in order to have a flourishing economy you need constant supply of young, innovative work force. And Japan ran out of just that..

So in 1990s, Japan entered a phase of GREAT STAGNATION. That means it showed almost zero growth in last 3 decades!. It's economy is still $4.9 trillion.

大約30%的日本人一輩子都不結婚。所以日本人口開始迅速老齡化，人口規模開始下降。但為了維持繁榮的經濟，需要有源源不斷的年輕、創新的勞動力。而日本已經沒有這個條件了。

因此從20世紀90年代開始，日本進入了停滯階段。這意味著在過去30年里，日本幾乎沒有增長！經濟規模依然是4.9萬億美元。

China which had 50 times smaller economy than Japan back in 1980s, ironically has 3 times larger economy compared to Japan today. All that in 4 decades.

The whole point is, as of now, China is indeed doing great in terms of economy as compared to India...

在20世紀80年代，日本的經濟規模是中國的50倍，具有諷刺意味的是，今天中國的經濟規模已經達到日本的3倍了。如此巨變就發生在這40年內。

到目前為止，與印度相比，中國在經濟方面的表現確實十分出色…

By far, China’s economy stands anywhere around 15 trillion dollars as compared to 2.7 trillion dollar Indian Economy.

China has foreign reserves of 5 times as India.

China has great infrastructure and it has literally become powerhouse of manufacturing and exports.

It's way above India in anything related economy as of now.

到目前為止，中國經濟規模約為18萬億美元，而印度經濟規模僅為2.7萬億美元。

中國的外匯儲備是印度的5倍。

中國擁有強大的基礎設施，已經成為制造業和出口大國。

到目前為止，在所有經濟領域，中國都遠超印度。

But the question is for how long?

With controversial one child policy, even China’s population is aging rapidly, talent pool is shrinking too, so what happened to Japan might very well happen to China.

但問題是，中國能持續高速發展多長時間呢？

備受爭議的獨生子女政策使得中國的人口也在迅速老齡化，人才資源不斷萎縮，所以中國可能也會重蹈日本的覆轍。

Another thing is, much of China’s progress is based upon it's policy of disrespecting Intellectual property rights and avoiding free trade and thereby curtailing competition. Most of countries including USA have sensed that and as a result now they are demanding China to shed off its trade protectionism.

還有一點，中國的進步在很大程度上是建立在損害知識產權和自由貿易，從而減少競爭的政策基礎上的。包括美國在內的大多數國家都意識到了這一點，因此他們現在開始要求中國放棄貿易保護政策。

I laugh gleefully when my fellow Indians say “India can never beat China even in dreams”. Economics is a Bitch…there was a time when Venezuela was developed and Norway was poor country, at world stage it doesn't take a lot of time to go from rag to riches and other way around.

At present India’s potential growth is hugely suppressed by corruption, excessive government control, socialist leaning policies, hostile neighbours and awful education system.. But things are changing rapidly.

當我的印度同胞說“印度即使做夢也拼不過中國”時，我笑了。曾幾何時，委內瑞拉十分發達，而挪威還是個一窮二白的國家，在世界舞臺上，從窮變富并不需要等候太長時間。

目前，印度的潛在增長被腐敗、過度的政府控制、社會主義傾向的政策、敵對的鄰國和糟糕的教育體系嚴重壓制了。但這種情況正在迅速變化。

It's not impossible that India becomes 3rd or 2nd largest economy in the world in the next two decades.

Only time will tell whether India leaves China behind or not, Only thing that I can say that it's not impossible.

未來20年，印度完全有可能成為世界第三或第二大經濟體。

只有時間才能證明印度會不會把中國甩在身后。我唯一能說的就是：一切皆有可能。

Bill Chen

Do something about the rupee's slide which has been ongoing for 7 decades, a 2,100 percent devaluation.

In the 21st century, the yuan has more than doubled against the rupee.

Arrest the slide and reverse it, instead of hanging on to explanations which Gandhi himself would have made. India is three generations past the great man, and it is only right that a forward looking society expect progress.

趕緊對已經持續了70年的盧比貶值做點什么吧，已經貶值2100%了。

21世紀人民幣對盧比已經升值了一倍多。

我們必須終結這種下滑趨勢并扭轉頹勢，不要繼續死死抓住甘地的解釋不放。這位偉人已經過去三代了，追求進步、向前看才是正確的選擇。

Mohit

How can India beat China's economy?

Quite difficult for India, at least in the foreseeable future.

One major reason I would like to point out is that India is a import dependent country whereas China is export oriented.

China has skilled work force India don’t.

印度如何才能超越中國經濟？

對印度來說，至少在可預見的未來都相當困難。

一個主要原因在于，印度是一個依賴進口的國家，而中國是以出口為導向的國家。

中國有熟練的勞動力，而印度沒有。

Single party rule makes China adopt policies clearly and precisely, India has multiparty rule faces the brunt in transition

China has infrastructure, India lacks.

India talks, China does.

These are few things which will keep India behind China in the coming days also. India really needs to work hard.

中國的制度使得政策制定清晰而精準，而印度的多黨制遇到政府換屆就問題頻發。

中國有基礎設施，而印度缺乏。

印度空談，中國實干。

在未來的日子里，這些事情還會繼續讓印度落后于中國。印度真的必須努力追趕了。

Anchal Tamrakar

How can India defeat China in the economic field?

Every country need sacrifice to build it otherwise it's a piece of land..

Remember diamonds are created under pressure so hold on, it be your time to shine soon..

印度如何才能在經濟領域擊敗中國？

建設每個國家都需要做出犧牲，否則就只是一塊土地而已。

記住，是壓力鍛造出了鉆石，所以堅持住，很快就輪到你發光了。

To become world power all Indians should sacrifice own freedom. Each one should work as a slave of India. To make India a truly free contry in which all its needs are produced. There should be no dependency on other countries. Hard work is required to make India’s own design and development using all available natural resources. And so on…

為了成為世界強國，所有印度人都應該犧牲自己的自由。每個人都應該像奴隸一樣努力工作。讓印度成為一個真正自由的國家，這樣我們就能生產出所有需求的商品。我們不該繼續依賴其他國家。只有埋頭苦干，才能利用所有可用的自然資源實現自主設計和開發。

Empires like Mauryans and Guptas. Let me tell you something, those empires didn't come out of nothing, our ancestors had sacrificed their blood and sweat to give us something to feel proud about. But you Mr. Reader had no role in building those glorious days. What stands before you is your present. Past has faded away, future is yet to come, we only have present in our hands. After maybe a thousand years, when our descendants, would look back at us through the mirror of history pages, what would they think? Wouldn't they blame it on us that we kept India weak like we do on some of our kings? Wouldn't they detest us?

我要說的是，孔雀王朝和笈多王朝等帝國不是憑空出現的，我們的先輩們犧牲了他們的鮮血和汗水，換來了我們引以為傲的歷史。但讀者們，你們并沒有參與過創造輝煌的日子。你面對的是你的現在。過去已逝，未來尚未來臨，我們手中只有現在。也許一千年后，當我們的子孫后代，透過歷史的鏡子回望我們時，他們會如何做想？他們難道不會責怪我們讓印度國力衰弱，就像我們指責歷史上某些國王一樣嗎？他們難道不會記恨我們嗎？

A century is nothing in grand scheme of history. Wouldn't our time period be just ignored like we do to medieval kingdoms? When our descendants would be learning this shameful chapter of Indian history, their Chinese and European counterparts would be learning about golden age of modern China and Europe. Wouldn't our descendants be ashamed of us while discussing about 20th–21st century with their Chinese and European friends and curse at us for being weak. Do you really want to see such a dystopian future?

一個世紀在漫長的歷史長河中微不足道。難道我們現在所處的年代不會像中世紀王國一樣被后人忽視嗎？在我們的子孫后代學習印度歷史上這一可恥篇章時，他們同期的中國人和歐洲人學習的是現代中國和歐洲的黃金時代。當我們的子孫后代和中國、歐洲的朋友討論20 - 21世紀時，他們會不會為我們感到羞愧，并咒罵我們的軟弱。你真的愿意看到這樣一個反烏托邦的未來嗎？

We are indeed not at same terms as Europeans or Chinese, but if we never try to improve ourselves and resign to our fate, this curse of being slaves will haunt our descendants for thousands of years…

我們確實和歐洲人、中國人不一樣，但如果我們自己不努力提升自己，只聽任命運擺布，這種為奴為婢的詛咒還將困擾我們的后代數千年……

Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam

India develops a miracle product that noone else can manufacture like a cure for HIV or a cure for Cancer or Diabetes, Renewable power generation which has global deman, or India discovers a huge source of Oil or nuclear Thorium - then perhaps in 50 years - India would overtake China

如果：印度研制出了一種別人無法制造的奇跡產品，比如能夠治愈艾滋病、癌癥或糖尿病的藥物，有全球急需的可再生能源，發現了巨大的石油或核釷資源—那么也許50年后，印度能夠超過中國。

Other than these two cases - India has lagged too far. They cannot surpass China in any other case of scenario, no matter what they do.

除了這兩種情況發生，否則印度落后中國太多了，無論他們怎么掙扎也無法超越中國。

Vardhaman Sakhlecha

Can India Surpass China's economy by 2050?

No. Economic growth is usually measured in terms of Gross Domestic Product. (GDP)

到2050年，印度經濟能超過中國嗎？

不能。經濟增長通常以國內生產總值GDP來衡量。

There are varying forecast about India and China’s growth rate. So lets assume the best case scenario for India at 7% p.a. and an moderate growth scenario for China at 4%

Assuming India grows at 7% p.a. till 2050, its GDP would at best touch $23 Trillion. China, if it grows at 4% p.a., would be able to touch a GDP $43 Trillion by 2050.

人們對印度和中國的增長速度有不同的預測。所以，假設印度的最佳情況是每年增長7%，中國增長4%。

就算印度以每年7%的速度增長到2050年，其GDP最多可以達到23萬億美元。如果中國以每年4%的速度增長，到2050年GDP將達到43萬億美元。

So, no India will not surpass Chinese economy by 2050 unless something extraordinary takes place more than ordinary number of times in the next few decades.

China was able to take advantage of globalization when manufacturing shifted from west to the east but this advantage doesn’t remain with the rise of protectionism. India would have to work at finding alternate growth models.

所以，除非在未來幾十年發生某些非同尋常的事件，否則到2050年印度經濟不可能超過中國，。

當制造業從西方轉移到東方時，中國能夠充分利用全球化的優勢，但這種優勢已隨著保護主義的興起而消失了。印度不得不努力尋找其他的替代增長模式。